 
The
GameMaster's Blackjack School
Back
to Blackjack School Index
Lesson
11:Evaluating
Games
While
almost all Blackjack games are ultimately
beatable, the rewards to be gained
from marginal situations do not
adequately compensate you for your
time and risk. Therefore, you must
evaluate a game in several ways
before playing it. Two primary areas
of concern are the house rules of
the game, including the number of
decks used and the placement of
the cut-card, what we call "penetration."
Many
rule changes require a change in
your basic strategy, so don't forget
about the "Basic Strategy Engine"
which we linked in lesson 1. Rule
changes may also affect your betting
schedule, so if you have any doubts
about what to do, e-mail me.
Effect
of Rule Variations on the Player's
Edge
(Assume 6 decks, double on any first
two cards, no double after splitting,
resplit all pairs, except Aces,
insurance is available and the dealer
stands on Ace-6. This yields a -.54%
advantage to the player.)
| Changes
which help the player |
Change
in the edge |
| Double
aftere split |
+.14% |
| Resplit
Aces |
+.07% |
| Early
surrender vs. all |
+.70% |
| Early
surrender vs 10 0nly |
+.30% |
| Late
surrender |
+.08% |
| Single
Deck |
+.50% |
| Two
Decks |
+.20% |
| Four
Decks |
+.05% |
| Changes
which hurt the player |
Changes
in edge |
| Dealer
hits A-6 |
-.20% |
| Double
only on 11 |
-.46% |
| Double
only on 10,11 |
-.09% |
| Double
only 9, 10,11 |
-.09% |
| No
respliting pairs |
-.04% |
| No
insurance (if you are counting
cards) |
-.40% |
To
determine the casino's edge over
you at the beginning of a shoe,
just add or subtract the rules variations
from the 'base' game listed above.
For example, if you play a double
deck game which has the same rules
as the base game, the casino advantage
is computed as follows
| Base
game -.54% |
| Two
Decks +.20% |
| _____________________ |
| Player
edge -.34% |
Effect
of Deck Penetration
How
far the dealer goes into the deck(s)
before shuffling can have a major
effect on your winnings. The reason
is that with a shallow penetration,
the 'high' counts which enable you
to bet more occur less often in
decks where the shuffle comes early.
The table below shows how often
counts will occur on a percentage
basis at varying degrees of penetration.
| Percent
Occurrence at... |
| True
Count |
50% |
65% |
75% |
85%
penetration |
| +1 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
| +2 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
| +3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
| +4 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
4 |
| +5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| +6 |
.5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| +7 |
0 |
.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
| +8 |
0 |
0 |
.5 |
1 |
| +9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
.5 |
| +10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
.5 |
Let's
examine what I'm trying to say here.
If you play at a game with only
50% penetration, out of every 100
hands, only 29 will have, on average,
a true count of 1 or better. Since
it requires a true count of 1 to
get even with the house, only 14
will be hands on which you have
an advantage. Now look at the stats
for a game with 85% penetration.
Here, about 37.5% of the hands will
be at breakeven or better and almost
a quarter will be hands on which
you have an advantage.
YOU
ARE WASTING YOUR TIME AND MONEY
IF YOU PLAY AT A GAME WITH LESS
THAN 65% PENETRATION.
Even
if a game doesn't offer the best
rules, it can still be beaten if
good penetration is available. Remember
that you should leave a game when
the count drops below a true of
minus 1 so that you spend most of
your playing time making bets in
what I call the 'profit zone.'
Homework
Calculate
the player starting advantage for
the following:
- Single
deck, double only on 10 and 11and
the dealer hits A-6. Resplits
(except Aces) are permitted and
insurance is available.
-
Six decks, dealer stands on A-6,
double any first two cards, double
after split is allowed, resplitting
permitted, including Aces and
insurance is available.
-
Two decks, double on any first
two cards, no resplitting of pairs,
no double after split allowed,
late surrender and insurance is
available.
I'll
post the correct answers to this
quiz next time.
|
