 
The
GameMaster's Blackjack School
Back
to Blackjack School Index
Lesson
10:The Proper Mental Attitude
I
always stress the idea of 'expectation'
as it applies to casino gaming because
understanding the concept will help
you stop gambling and hopefully
turn you into an investor at the
tables. By definition, an investor
expects to make a profit so you
cannot be an investor if you play
at games where there is a negative
expectation. If you bet $10 on the
Pass line at craps, you'll either
win $10 or lose $10, but your 'expectation'
is to lose 14 cents on every hand.
That's because the house has a built-in
edge of 1.4% on that bet and if
you play it frequently, your average
loss will work out to be 14 cents
per decision. In the short term
you might win a lot of money, but
play it long enough and the house
edge will eventually have its effect.
Since the average craps table produces
about 60 decisions an hour, the
cost per hour of betting $10 on
the pass line will work out to be
-- in the long run -- about 60 X
14 cents = $8.40.
Now
let's look at this concept from
the point of view of a positive
expectation situation like card
counting at Blackjack. If your average
bet is $12 and the average advantage
you have over the house is 1.25%,
your expectation is to win $12 X
.0125 = $.15 per hand. Yes, that's
15 cents per hand. At a rate of
60 hands an hour, you can expect
to make -- in the long run -- about
60 X 15 cents = $9.00 an hour. But,
if you can increase the number of
hands you play per hour to, say,
80 hands, you've raised your expectation
to 80 X 15 cents = $12.00 an hour.
The only other way to make more
money is to either raise the size
of your average bet or increase
your edge over the casino. The bet
size is just a function of your
bankroll (and your ability to continue
'fooling' the casino into believing
you are just another gambler and
not a card counter) and the advantage
is mostly a function of the casino's
rules for their Blackjack game.
I will address both these issues
in future lessons, so for now let's
focus on increasing the number of
hands you play in an hour.
More
Hands Mean More Money
If
you are the only player at a six-deck
game, you can play at a rate of
about 200 hands an hour. With all
else remaining equal, that will
raise your expectation to 200 X
15 cents = $30 an hour -- a very
healthy increase. The problem here
is that I want you to get up and
walk away whenever the true count
drops below M1, so 200 hands an
hour is possible only if you get
one of those shoes where the count
stays positive AND if you are fast
enough to keep the count while your
playing at this rate. Moving when
the deck goes bad is a must, since
it's cheaper to not play at all
rather than play at a game where
the house has an edge over you.
But
200 hands an hour is a worthy goal,
so continue practicing with your
single-deck countdown in an effort
to build your speed to a point where
you can go through a deck in under
20 seconds. When you can do that
and compute the true count and play
perfect basic strategy, you should
play one-on-one whenever possible.
That may mean that you'll have to
go to the casino at 2 AM on a Monday,
but it will be worth it. Just remember
that increasing your rate of play
will increase your hourly standard
deviation, so don't be surprised
if you lose $400 or more in an hour's
play; your risk hasn't increased
but you have -- in effect -- 'compressed'
your time factor. Dealers often
tell me that a player "can't win"
one-on-one, but they're wrong. Their
misconception in this regard comes
from the fact that because more
hands are being played, the swings
are bigger and dealers usually remember
the big losers and forget the big
winners. As an investor, it is in
your best interest to play as many
hands an hour as possible, since
your expectation is to win 15 cents
a hand.
THE
GOAL OF THE PROFESSIONAL PLAYER
IS TO PUT IN AS MUCH QUALITY PLAYING
TIME AS POSSIBLE; WIN OR LOSS AMOUNTS
ARE SECONDARY. BY PLAYING AND BETTING
CORRECTLY, THE $$$ WILL COME WITH
TIME.
A
Winning Attitude
As
I've said before, the wins at Blackjack
come in 'chunks', so you shouldn't
be concerned when you have a losing
session, nor should you feel invincible
when you win. A proper mental attitude
eliminates the highs and lows of
the game (thus making it very boring
-- at least in my
opinion) but it enables you to play
a solid , unemotional game. When
I have a losing session (on average,
35% of the time), I just go away
knowing that the casino will take
good care of the money and I'll
eventually come back and get it.
600 hands of play means I've 'earned'
600 times my expectation per hand
so I just need to keep going to
work and my paycheck will eventually
reflect my earnings. To put it simply,
if you are playing a winning game,
it isn't a matter of 'if' you will
win, merely a matter of 'when'.
So
let the ice-water begin to flow
in your veins -- as one author put
it, "steely blue eyes will do."
Emotion has no place in card-counting;
accuracy and patience are the only
requirements for getting the $$$.
Homework
Get
an old deck of cards and a marker
pen. For those of you playing at 6-deck
games, write the number "1/2" on the
back of one card, "1" on the next
card, "1 1/2" on the third card and
continue up to 5 by increments of
one-half. Now , number the backs of
20 more cards individually from 1
to 20. Shuffle both piles (separately)
face up so you can't see the numbers
and turn over the top card from the
first pile. This will represent the
number of decks in the discard tray.
For example, if it's the "2 1/2" card,
it represents 2 1/2 decks in the discard
tray, so that must mean there are
3 1/2 decks left in the shoe. Now
begin turning over the cards from
the second pile. These represent the
running count and we want to practice
computing the true count, so if the
first card is "8", the true count
is 8 divided by 3 1/2 = 2 (remember,
we round down to be conservative).
Keep going through the running count
cards while the 'decks' card remains
the same. When you've gone through
all the running count cards, change
the 'decks' card and do it again.
This
exercise will help speed your ability
to compute the true count accurately.
Those of you who will be playing
single deck just need to make a
card for 1/4, 1/2, and 3/4 decks
and running-count cards from 1 to
10, but you will practice the same
way.
I
usually demonstrate this, instead
of writing it out, so if it's confusing,
please don't hesitate to e-mail
me and I'll explain it further.
As you do this exercise, concentrate
on accuracy and remember to be conservative
in computing the true count.
As
always, if you have any questions,
e-mail me at
aceten1@mindspring.com
and Ill get back to you AS
|
