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Lesson
8: Money Management - Part 2
A
Few Words on Single Deck
In
the previous lesson, I taught you
how to figure the "true count" for
a multi-deck game, but I want to
emphasize that the concept of true
count also applies to single-deck
games as well. The conversion is
done a bit differently, but the
result is the same; you end up with
a standardized count per remaining
deck. If you see just one card in
a single-deck game, a 5 for example,
you now have a "running count" of
1 and a true count of one. That,
of course, is because there's only
one deck in the game to begin with
and we determine the true count
by dividing the running count by
the number of remaining decks. If,
after playing several hands the
running count is 6 and there's three-fourths
of a deck left to be played, we
must divide the running count by
.75 in order to determine the true
count. In this instance, the true
count is 8. If we were at the halfway
point of the deck, the true count
would be 6 divided by .50 = 12.
Got the concept of that? In a single-deck
game, you have to divide by fractions,
and that isn't easy to do, so all
you single-deck counters need to
practice this in order to figure
it properly when you play.
Betting
With the True Count
For
each increase of 1 in the true count
as figured by the Hi / Lo counting
method, the player's advantage increases
by about .5% in the average Blackjack
game. If the casino has an edge
over the basic strategy player of
.40% (6 decks, double on any first
two cards, double after splitting
pairs, dealer stands on A-6), it
takes a true count of just about
1 in order to get "even" with the
house. Being even means that the
player who utilizes proper basic
strategy will win as much as s/he
loses -- in the long run -- at a
true count of one. A true count
of 2 gives the counter an edge of
.5% over the house; a true count
of 3 gives the player an edge of
1% and so forth.
It
is the edge that a player has on
the upcoming hand which determines
their bet. Count- ers bet only a
small portion of their capital on
any given hand, because while they
will win in the long run, they could
lose any one hand. By betting an
amount which is in proportion to
their advantage (called the "Kelly
Criterion"), they are maximizing
their potential while minimizing
the risk. A lot of people misinterpret
the Kelly Criterion by assuming
that the amount bet is in direct
proportion to the advantage. They
think that if you have a 1% edge,
you should bet 1% of your "bankroll"
and that is incorrect. What they
are forgetting is the doubling and
pair splitting which goes on in
the course of a game and that increases
the risk or "variance" of a hand.
For a game with rules like those
listed above, the optimum bet is
76% of the player's advantage. Here's
a table of optimum bets which will
work well for most multi-deck games:
| True
Count |
Advantage |
%
Optimum Bet |
| -1
or lower |
-1.00%
or more |
0% |
| 0 |
-0.50% |
0% |
| 1 |
0% |
0% |
| 2 |
0.5%x76% |
.38% |
| 3 |
1.0%x76% |
.76% |
| 4 |
1.5%x76% |
1.14% |
| 5 |
2.0%x76% |
1.52% |
| 6 |
2.5%x76% |
1.90% |
| 7 |
3.0%x76% |
2.28% |
By
using this table, you can determine
the optimal bet for any bankroll;
just multiply the figure in the
last column by the amount of the
bankroll. Thus, for a bankroll of
$3000, the optimal bet for a true
count of 2 is .0038 X $3000 = $11.40.
Some
Practical Considerations
First
and foremost, it isn't practical
to bet in units of less than $1,
so a betting schedule must be rounded
off. Secondly, it is more appropriate
to bet in units of $5 so that you'll
look like the average gambler, plus
it cuts down on the calculations
you need to make. Further, it is
impossible to refigure your optimal
bet while seated at the table, even
though it should be recalculated
as the bankroll varies up and down.
Finally, it just isn't possible
to play only at shoes where the
true count is 2 or higher; you will
sometimes have to make bets when
the house has an edge. All of this
rounding and negative-deck play
cuts into your win rate, but by
knowing the conditions which can
cost you money, steps can be taken
to minimize their impact on your
earnings.
The Betting Spread
A
single-deck game with decent rules
in which thirty-six cards or more
are used before a shuffle can be
beaten by a 1 to 4 spread. A two-deck
game in which seventy cards or more
are used before the shuffle can
usually be beaten by a 1 to 6 spread.
A game with four decks or more will
require a spread of 1 to 12 in order
to get an edge. We'll discuss the
evaluation of games in a later lesson,
but I wanted to lay the foundation
for your money management by giving
you an idea of what it takes to
play winning Blackjack. The spread
is expressed in betting units, so
if you play with $5 chips, you'd
be spreading from $5 to $60 in a
six-deck game. Since a counter should
have a bankroll consisting of a
minimum of 50 top bets, a spread
like this will require a bankroll
of $3000.
With
a $3000 bankroll, a betting schedule
could look like this:
| True
Count |
Player's
Bet |
Optimum
Bet |
| 0
or lower |
$5 |
$0 |
| 1 |
$5 |
$0 |
| 2 |
$10 |
$11.20 |
| 3 |
$20 |
$22.80 |
| 4 |
$40 |
$34.20 |
| 5 |
$50 |
$45.60 |
| 6 |
$60 |
$57.00 |
A
betting schedule like this allows
you to "parlay" your bets as the
count rises, thus making you look
more like a "gambler".
YOU WILL SAVE A LOT OF MONEY AND
FIND MORE PROFITABLE SITUATIONS
IF YOU LEAVE A TABLE WHEN THE COUNT
HAS GONE DOWN TO A TRUE OF - 1.
BUT LEAVE ONLY AFTER LOSING A HAND;
NO GAMBLER WOULD LEAVE A TABLE AFTER
A WIN.
So,
have I got your brain spinning?
If so, just hang in there as I'll
be wrapping all this up in a nice,
easy-to-understand package in the
coming weeks. As always, get your
homework, then you're outta here.
Homework
None.
How's that for a break?
As
always, if you have any questions,
e-mail me at
aceten1@mindspring.com
and Ill get back to you
ASAP.
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