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Lesson
7: Money Management - Part 1
A
Sermon
I
do a little bit of preaching here
on the pages of The GameMaster Online
every so often, primarily because
I hate to think of people handing
their money to casinos. I'm not
saying I don't lose, because I have
my bad days as well, but what I
am saying is that the casinos have
to fight me for every penny they
get. You need to develop that kind
of attitude and just the fact that
you're reading this now shows me
that you're willing to learn, so
you've got a good start. Casinos
make money because the players allow
them to make money. Even if you've
learned everything I've taught you
up to this point, you're still not
ready to play, so forget about it
and start building your bankroll
towards the day when you WILL be
ready. You cannot expect to win
at Blackjack if you're betting the
rent money. You must have a sum
of money set aside which is "extra"
-- money which, should you lose
it, will not affect your lifestyle
in any way. By doing it that way,
you'll bet what needs to be bet
and play the hands as they need
to be played. That's what gets the
$$$ at the casino. 'Nuff said.
What
is Money Management?
As
it applies to playing Blackjack
as a card counter, money management
is a method of betting which will
minimize your losses and maximize
your gains. Playing Blackjack carries
with it the risk of loss. The advantage
a counter has over the casino is
small and the fluctuations in a
player's bankroll can occur with
frightening speed. Proper management
of your funds is required in all
aspects of the game to give you
the best possible chance of reaching
that elusive "long term". Some of
you will begin your careers as counters
with a big win and you'll never
look back. Most of you, however,
will begin with a loss and it will
take more hours of play before you
start showing a profit; that's just
the reality of the situation. What
I'm going to teach you in the next
four or five lessons is how to survive
at the game until your long term
edge begins to have its effect and
then show you how to keep the profits
you make.
The
True Count
All
of our betting decisions will be
made on the basis of what is known
as the "true count" or more accurately,
the "count per remaining deck".
While most of this applies to those
who will be playing at multi-deck
games, you single-deckers pay attention,
too -- you'll need to know this
as well. If six small cards come
out on the first hand in a game,
we will have a running count of
6. For the single-deck players,
you will have a true count of just
over 6, since there's just a bit
less than one deck remaining to
be played. If you're at a six-deck
game, the count per remaining deck
(the true count) is just a bit over
1, since there is just a bit less
than 6 decks remaining to be played.
See how that works? We are "standardizing"
the count by dividing the running
count by the total number of remaining
decks. Let's try another example
to see if you understand the concept.
At a single-deck game on the first
hand, a running count of 2 (remember,
I don't use "+" to indicate a positive
number) converts to a true count
of 2, when rounded off. In a six-deck
game and a running count of 12 after
the first hand, the true count converts
to 2. Both true counts are 2 , but
it takes a much higher running count
to achieve that in the six-deck
game.
TO
DETERMINE THE TRUE COUNT, DIVIDE
THE "RUNNING" COUNT BY THE NUMBER
OF DECKS REMAINING TO BE PLAYED.
Don't
let that statement confuse you.
What this means is the number of
decks left, whether they'll actually
be played or not. In a six-deck
game, a deck or more may be cut
off by the dealer, but that means
nothing when computing true count.
The basis for the calculation is
the total number of decks in the
game which is adjusted by the number
of decks which have been played.
An example: in a six-deck game where
two decks have been played and put
into the discard rack off to the
side, a running count of 8 translates
into a true count of 2 because there
are four decks left in the shoe.
The dealer may shuffle before all
four of those remaining decks have
been played, but for true count
conversion that doesn't matter.
Take
this this little test with me to
see if you understand the principle.
|
Deck
Remaining |
Running
Count |
True
Count |
| 1. |
4 |
8 |
2 |
| 2. |
2 |
10 |
5 |
| 3. |
5 |
5 |
1 |
| 4. |
3 |
12 |
4 |
Estimating
the Number of Remaining Decks
The
casinos are very nice about providing
us a device to determine just how
many decks there are remaining to
be played in the shoe. No, that
device is not the shoe, but the
discard tray which can be found
on virtually every table where a
multi-deck game is played. As cards
are used, the dealer places them
very neatly in the discard tray
where everyone can see them so counters
use that, and a bit of subtraction,
to determine how many decks are
left to be played. At a six-deck
game, if there are two decks in
the discard tray, there has to be
four decks left in the shoe, assuming
no cards are on the table. What
we strive for is to be accurate
to within a half-deck for our estimation.
Just exactly how to train for that
is one of your homework assignments,
so don't worry about it for the
moment. What's more important at
this point are the mechanics used
to calculate the true count by that
method. Let's walk through a simple
explanation together.
We're
at a six-deck game, the running
count is M-6 and three decks are
in the discard tray. That means
three decks remain, so we divide
the running count by 3 and our true
count is M-2. Yes, this works for
negative decks as well -- exactly
the same way. Got it? Try this test
to see if you do.
Assume
we're at a six-deck game. I'm only
going to give you the decks in the
discard tray, so do the calculation
to determine the number of decks
left in the shoe.
|
Decks
Played |
Running
Count |
True
Count |
| 1. |
2 |
4 |
? |
| 2. |
4 |
8 |
? |
| 3. |
5 |
5 |
? |
| 4.
|
1 |
5 |
? |
| 5. |
2.5 |
7 |
? |
| 6. |
2 |
0 |
? |
| 7. |
3.5 |
M-5 |
? |
| 8. |
1.5 |
9 |
? |
| 9. |
3
|
M-3 |
? |
| 10. |
4.5 |
3 |
? |
The
Answers
1.
One (2 decks played, 4 decks remaining,
4 divided by 4 = 1)
2.
Four (4 decks played, 2 decks remaining,
8 divided by 2 = 4)
3.
Five (You're on your own now, kid.)
4.
One
5.
Two
6.
Zero
7.
M-two
8.
Two
9.
M-one
10.
A bit over one (but we always round
"down" in order to be conservative,
so we'd call this "one".)
I
can see some eyes glazing over out
there, so we better stop for this
week. But don't be discouraged; you
can learn this -- it just takes some
practice. Speaking of practice, pick
up your homework assignment and practice
"calibrating" your eyes.
Homework
Estimating
the number of decks remaining in a
discard tray is really just an exercise
in repetitive staring. If you look
at a deck of 52 cards long enough,
you can tell if 10 or 12 cards have
been added to it. So, that's how we
calibrate our eyes. Begin with a single
deck and look it for a while. Then,
put another deck on top of it and
look at that for a while. Now, put
a third deck on top and look at that
for a while. Finally, pull one deck
off -- don't count the cards -- just
estimate how much a deck is, pull
it off and then count it to see how
close you were. Now, put that deck
back on top and pull off two decks,
count them for accuracy and put them
back on top. Now, build your stack
up to five decks and pull off a deck
and a half, then three decks and so
on. You'll be amazed at how quickly
you've begun to recognize how many
decks are in a pile. A nice variation
to this exercise is to have a friend
set up piles of various sizes (within
a half-deck accuracy) while you're
out of the room and then you come
in and recite the size of each pile.
Keep
at it, because you've got to be
accurate at this. Your money will
be riding on it.
See
you here next week when we discuss
how to bet by using the true count.
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